Establishment and evaluation of predictive model for the shelf life of chilled yellow broiler
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摘要: 为建立冷鲜黄羽肉鸡的货架期预测模型,将冷鲜黄羽肉鸡用托盘包装后,置于-1、4、10、15、20℃贮藏,分别测定不同贮藏时间的细菌总数,同时对4℃贮藏的冷鲜黄羽肉鸡的挥发性盐基氮进行分析,确定最小腐败限控量NS为5.67 lg（CFU/g）。使用修正的Gompertz模型、Baranyi模型及修正的Logistic模型分别描述细菌总数随时间变化的情况,并使用平方根模型描述一级模型所得参数随温度变化的情况。通过比较各模型所得的参数、回归系数（R2）、偏差因子（Bf）、准确因子（Af）以及二级模型的残差平方和（RSS）,确定修正的Gompertz的拟合优度最好。在以修正的Gompertz模型为生长预测模型的基础上,构建冷鲜黄羽肉鸡的货架期预测模型,结果显示5种温度下的预测值与实测值之间的相对均误差均小于10%,表明建立的模型能够快速准确的预测-120℃贮藏条件下冷鲜黄羽肉鸡的货架期。
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关键词:
- 冷鲜黄羽肉鸡 /
- 货架期 /
- 预测模型 /
- 拟合优度 /
- 修正的Gompertz模型
Abstract: In order to establish a predictive model for the shelf- life of chilled yellow broiler,samples were packed in trays and stored at-1,4,10,15,and 20 ℃,respectively,and their aerobic plate count were determined.Meanwhile,chilled yellow broiler was analyzed for total volatile basic nitrogen during storage at 4 ℃. Results showed that the average number of total viable counts was 5.67 lg( CFU / g) at the end of the shelf life.The primary models,modified Gompertz,Baranyi and modified Logistic were applied to describe the change of total bacterial counts with time,and their secondary models,square root equations,were used to describe the change of parameters from primary models with time.The modified Gompertz model was evaluated as the best goodness of fit by comparing the model parameters,regression coefficient( R2),bias factor( Bf),accuracy factor( Af) and residual sum of squares( RSS) of the secondary models. On the basis of modified Gompertz,the relative error between predicted value obtained from total bacterial count growth prediction model and its observed shelf life was less than 10%.Which indicated the predictive model was reliable for the shelf- life of chilled yellow broiler meat stored at temperature ranging from-1 to 20 ℃.-
Keywords:
- chilled yellow broiler /
- shelf life /
- prediction mode /
- goodness-of-fit /
- modified Gompertz
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